Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $12,285$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(368 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.6\) days)
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $203$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(40.2 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{204.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 87.3)}}\) (asimptote \(204.3\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,529$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $85,707$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,949.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 95.4)}}\) (asimptote \(85,949.0\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,838$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(95.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,727.7}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 51.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,727.7\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $79,869$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,623$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(126.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,242.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,242.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $264$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(126 \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(135.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{250.1}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(250.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,011$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,337$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.71 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(103.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,513.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 51.6)}}\) (asimptote \(7,513.4\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $336$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(152 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(118.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{328.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(328.9\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $651$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $18,784$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(94.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,117.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 54.8)}}\) (asimptote \(15,117.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $628$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(293 \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(129.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{607.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(607.5\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,826$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,150$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.52 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,876.0}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 30.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,876.0\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.25 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.0}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 22.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $80$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $89,141$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.32 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(92.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{70,947.0}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 51.6)}}\) (asimptote \(70,947.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,912$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,726.2}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,726.2\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $60,627$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $354,932$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(9.43 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{308,616.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 58.9)}}\) (asimptote \(308,616.8\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $41,675$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.61 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(107.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,712.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(40,712.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $311,430$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $280,153$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{246,034.2}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(246,034.2\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,563$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,732.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(34,732.7\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,789$ on 2020-09-08
